Jul 062017
 

I have no strong personal animus against David Hadley. I don’t really know him, other than the fact that he is an Eastern Liberal style Republican.

The California Blanket Primary puts all candidates on the same ballot with the top two going in to the fall runoff. With the addition of Travis Allen to the ballot, people started asking if Travis Allen was actually going to file for Governor as he still has three terms left. In order for Mr. Allen to run for Governor, he would have to surrender his remaining 3 terms in the Assembly at appx 100K a year plus benefits.

Travis Allen has also said publicly that neither he nor his initiative are getting supported by the institutional donors or incumbent Partisan Republican Politicians. This further suggests that Mr. Allen’s “Run” for governor is more of a fundraising / publicity stunt. The assemblyman appears to be on his own.

However, David Hadley becomes the third notable Republican in the Governor’s race. Hadley will now split the Republican vote in half (as I am of the belief that Travis will not actually run for Governor), basically ensuring that Antonio Villaraigosa  will join Gay Marriage Gavin Newsome in the runoff.

Hadley is a former assemblymember, having served one term in AD66 before getting drubbed by the feckless Al Muratsuchi. Hadley lost re-election by a stunning 8 percentage points.

It has been clear to me since I decided to endorse John Cox for Governor that the GOP establishment, many of whom I consider friends, were not going to sit idly by and let John Cox be the nominee.

Without hearing this directly from any member of the legislature, it is clear that the nexus is John Cox’ neighborhood legislature initiative that would create a 12,000 member Assembly. Public Polls, the same ones that predicted Donald Trump’s doom and that currently say everyone hates Donald Trump, are also claiming that it is unpopular. These polls give people within the establishment cover for refusing to support Mr. Cox – when it is also clear that the neighborhood legislature is an extreme threat to the status quo.

I learned many years ago that you do not threaten the Status Quo unless you have unlimited resources in order to get around the institutional roadblocks. While many Republican officeholders are good people, the problem is that they want to stay in office the same way and reap the benefits. It is what it is.

David Hadley has no chance of winning Governor. He had told people he was not going to declare until he raised $7.5 Million. I’d lay odds he has $1.98 right now. This is despite the fact that Mr. Hadley himself has told several people that wealthy GOP donor Charles T. Munger, Jr. has committed $1 Million to his effort. I am not sure how that works as one donor can only give about $28K.

Even if Mr. Munger could contribute $1 Million, Mr. Hadley would need another Million to get even with John Cox and then would need the gigantic list of small dollar donors that John Cox has amassed to appear as anything other than a foil.

The concept I have written about several times is called, “Controlled Failure”. I’ve seen it repeat itself many times – the 2018 Governor’s race is again a laboratory for that theory. It appears, if everything I have typed is true, that GOP leadership have recruited an already willing David Hadley in to the governor’s race against John Cox not because he can win (remember his humiliating defeat for re-election in 2016?), but because Hadley will ensure John Cox does not make it in to the runoff. It appears to not matter how much we (the CAGOP) lose, just as long as those directing the Titanic are still in command.

Notice, I have not even been able to discuss how liberal Hadley is or any of the issues of the day in California. I can only draw the conclusion that they don’t matter. Controlling failure does.

Welcome to the race Mr. Hadley. Unless David Hadley raises said $7.5 Million on his way to $20 Million, there is no way anyone can draw any other conclusion than he is trying to help Antonio Villaraigosa in to the fall.

P.S. Hadley is an Eastern Republican in the mold of Susan Collins, did I remember to tell you that?

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