Oct 032017
 

Not to mention that I’d also question the class of it for reasons you will see in a bit.

Public Service Announcement: If you want to donate to a Republican Governor Candidate, you can click here to donate to John Cox.

Mr Cox has also enumerated a specific platform upon which he is running – you can see it for yourself. IT is actually easier to read and shorter in length than the bevy of links that Mr. Allen sent in his fundraising email.

What I know about Mr. Allen? He is a surfer. He is kind of Rico Suave. He obviously needs a new accountant and someone screwed up giving him advice on how to run his campaign.

Somehow the man who would be governor “forgot” to pay $42K in back taxes. While he did self-refer (right before declaring for governor) it makes him look like a surfer dude and not a governor dude.

Dude.

So, like I got this email from some surfer dude inviting me to a soiree and some other dudes house in Santa Ana? And he wants a wad of cash to be there?

But, Like why?

Dude.

There are all these links to newspapers, I mean who reads newspapers anymore? I was like trippin’ out on Tony Hawk’s latest stuff and reading up on the X-Games. Why is this surfer dude trying to be a politician?

Enter your intrepid blogger

Hey Surfer dudes, drop the bong.

Travis Suave thinks you should write him a $1000 check because he posted a list of media stories in his fundraiser invite.

There’s nothing else there.

I am seriously wondering if Travis Allen is thinking twice about his decision to leave AD72, especially now that it is becoming clear that Tyler Diep is a disaster.

In case you are wondering what the rest of the email looks like? I snipped out the RSVP info, because you don’t need it anyway. You can do better things with your hard-earned money like give it to John Cox, take your pet rat to the vet or pay your income taxes on time…

I shrunk the second part to minimize the brain damage it will cause the viewer.

This is what I call a marketing #EPICFAIL. There is no reason why to invest in Travis Allen at all in this email, and my pointing this out is not going to change future emails that much as this pattern has repeated itself.

This looks more like an ego driven move than anything about a serious campaign. Please Travis, just stop now.

Jul 162017
 

First off – the Cap and Trade Issue that some in the Assembly GOP Leadership appear to be ready to “compromise” on. Cap and Trade is a $300 Billion Tax of which 25% goes to Jerry Brown’s ego train (which I believe is a main nexus for it).  Second, Cap and Trade includes job-killing regulations by the buckets. This is a reason why Jerry Brown went to China to defy President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris economy-killer agreement.

So the deal as outlined on the Sacramento Bee reveals that this is about controlling the spending of the money raised from Cap and Trade (see also wealth redistribution), and has nothing to do with the crushing regulation or taxes. This is why Governor Candidate John Cox coined the hashtag #CAPANDTRAITORS

See here for two follow up blogs on the initial story: Chad Mayes Press Release, and Chad Mayes Retrenching on the issue.

I had referenced an internal poll from GOP Leadership. This poll was done months ago amidst the swirling controversy related to the Paris Climate Agreement that would have cost the US Economy $3 Trillion. This poll, which I have known about for months, was being widely discussed at the “Republican Reformers” meeting that is held annually at the Brooks Firestone Ranch.

This is a meeting of liberal and Moderate Republicans that John Cox was specifically excluded from. Please note, I have never been invited, nor have most other conservative leaders I know. However, Travis Allen and David Hadley were present.

That Poll which I had not written about publicly, nor had I discussed outside of insider circles says that Global Warming is the “wedge issue” for the Republicans. I’ve never see the cross-tabs on the raw data, but the “reformers” and the insiders privvy to its’ information are convinced that a $300 Billion Tax Increase that we can spend in a conservative way will win us elections.

It is my opinion that the poll’s results were influenced by the breathless, obsessive coverage of the left media. This is not dissimilar to the Kyoto hysteria of 20 years prior.

Which leads me back to the governor’s race, the California Impact Republicans had their annual BBQ and board meeting. Both Allen and Cox were present.

  1. When asked what he wanted his legacy as governor to be, John Cox said, “A Republican Party in Control of a Stable state for future generations, like Travis…” as he smiled and gestured to Travis Allen
  2. John Cox made it clear he is going to spend significant money on the Governor’s race
  3. I spoke directly to Travis who indicted that he is indeed not running for Assembly and that his Assembly account would be closed when feasible.
  4. Mr. Allen also indicated that his social media campaign would carry the day and that he would be to only Republican to file for governor – apparently he missed the memo about Mr. Cox’ investment in the campaign.

Which brings us to the “Trump Issue”

Travis Allen has bet the early success of his campaign on being the only Trump supporter. This is not accurate.

John Cox was focused on qualifying the Neighborhood Legislature Initiative, and indicated that he voted for Donald Trump as he supported the nominee of the GOP. For those of you that forget, I only became a full-blown Trumpanzee once Dr. Carson endorsed him. This is not dissimilar to Mr. Cox, like many in the GOP John Cox respected the result and supported the nominee.

Any assertion by Mr. Allen to have sole possession of the “Trump” mantle is inaccurate.

David Hadley was publicly critical of President Trump. His old Assembly site was full of #nevertrump. His connection to his current campaign consultant, #nevertrump godfather Jeff Roe was from #nevertrump California Chairman Ron Nehring.

While some have posted articles about Jeff Roe being interviewed for a job with the Trump campaign after Ted Cruz exited the primary, he was rejected quickly due to his issues. We will be sure to continue informing people about Jeff Roe’s issues in the course of our therapeutic endeavor on Mr. Hadley’s behalf.

Jul 132017
 

Whoops.

We’ve alleged that Travis Allen’s campaign for governor is not serious. People are pointing to the coronation of a successor Tyler Diep as a clear sign that Travis Allen is not going to run for his last three terms in the Assembly.

Stop. Travis Allen has not closed down his Assembly Election Account. We all need to call on Travis Allen to publicly declare that he is not running for Assembly in 2018 and see him formally close that account, then let’s talk about his “merits”.

When you see stuff like his Facebook Page with 308,000 likes, getting 0(!) new likes in a week of campaigning for governor, the term Potemkin Village comes to mind. I’ve seen Travis’ self-promotion for at least the last year on Facebook with thoroughly boosted posts statewide. It does not take long to accumulate page likes if you are spending thousands of dollars on Facebook.

How does a serious candidate for governor get 0 new likes after already having 308K in a week on Facebook? If he only had 5,000, I would get it. This suggests that 90+% of Mr. Allen’s social media followers were attracted with click-bait headlines and/or straight up paid for. This is not real support.

Creating an illusion is a common thing in a campaign.

There is a recent example of an Assemblyman running statewide, endorsing a successor and then filing for re-election to Assembly. Rocky Chavez ran for Senate in 2016, realized he could not raise any money and then filed for re-election to the Assembly. Chavez had endorsed Pete Wilson’s stepson to replace him. That candidate had obtained a slew of other endorsements as well. This is the exact same dynamic with Tyler Diep and Travis Allen.

Will Travis close his Assembly account and publicly declare that he is done in the Assembly? This is the question to get answered before we debate what if any merits Mr. Allen has as a candidate for Governor.

Jul 122017
 

Chad Mayes is the Assembly Republican Permanent Minority Leader. Chad Mayes has made some interesting decisions lately, one of which was tweeting about Harvey Milk Day. Milk is a historical nothing whose claim to fame was being gay and elected in a time when being gay and elected was not fashionable. Another was as tweet about paling around with the Democrat Majority Leader Anthony Rendon who rolls the GOP caucus (and Mayes) like they are not there.

So, I was not surprised to hear that Chad Mayes is attempting to undermine the moderate Democrats who are resisting the MASSIVE Cap and Trade tax increase that Governor Jerry Brown is currently seeking. Apparently a $65 Car tax and $.12 per gallon gas tax to raise $52 Billion is not enough. Chad Mayes is currently working under cover of darkness to “cut a deal” on Moonbeam’s climate debacle. Ostensibly, Mayes will then run to the cameras declaring the GOP to be the party of Conservative “Cap and Trade”.

I have been told that “leadership” has a poll that shows that “Climate Change” is a key issue to reaching the vaunted independent and democrat voters. Apparently Mr. Mayes and his friends in GOP leadership (at least on the Assembly side) think this means killing the farming industry, raising taxes and hammering the already last in the nation business environment down further. Mayes and others in leadership also were the prime movers behind David Hadley’s doomed from the beginning run for Governor of California.

Please note, I’ve had several folks cite my blog in attacks against Charles Munger. Mr. Munger is not responsible for this effort of Mayes, nor did he recruit David Hadley in to the race. (Mr. Munger did spend heavily on Hadley’s Assembly runs and Mr. Hadley is claiming more is coming his way in 2018. Duf Sundheim did the same in 2016, and it never came)

Charles Munger is not the one trying to raise your taxes even further, it is Chad Mayes and the assembly portion of “Republican Leadership”.

The effort behind David Hadley was much broader than Charles Munger and this climate change business is central to it. David Hadley is a Northeastern-Style Liberal Republican, his record as a member of the Assembly is clear on that fact. That breed of Republicans are tree-huggers.

Which leads me to John Cox – check out his release today:

Our goal should not be to cooperate with the Democrat leadership’s war on the middle class, but to counter.

California — Republican candidate for Governor and businessman John Cox issued the following statement on the current Cap and Trade bill (AB-398) being negotiated in the California Legislature:

“A Republican Legislator who tries to put lipstick on the cap-and-trade pig only demonstrates their irrelevance,” Cox said. “Our goal is not to cooperate with the Democrat leadership’s war on the middle class, but to counter because our ideas about growth, jobs and pocket book issues are better than theirs. Cap-and-trade is a tax. Even worse, it’s a hidden tax that consumers pay in price increases on a whole variety of products.”

“Any Legislator that doesn’t get that is placing more value on the Sacramento establishment system, than they do on the people they represent.”

“Higher prices for energy means fewer jobs. Businesses ask why they should stay in a high-cost state like California when there are business-friendly states that would welcome them with open arms. Every time the liberal elite passes a tax, a fee or a regulation that raises consumer prices, people lose their jobs. I don’t want to cooperate with the politicians that are doing that. I want to replace them before even one more small business is forced to close its doors.”

Somehow those that recruited and encouraged David Hadley to run for Governor believe that their polling data means that we need to use the Republican brand to tax our way to prosperity. We did that, remember Arnold?

These folks obviously think that Pat McCrory lost his Governorship in NC over the bathroom bill, it was not. McCrory was a Republican Tax-Raiser. The Nevada GOP got slaughtered in 2016 because they also raised taxes a staggering $2 Billion (think of how small Nevada’s population is).

This argument may be completely moot as it appears that the “Climate Change” caucus in the GOP has two missions, to raise our taxes even more and to stop John Cox. (because David Hadley has a lower chance of winning the Governor’s Race than the San Francisco 49ers do of Winning the 2018 Super Bowl.)

I am not sure what Chad Mayes and the Assembly part of “Republican leadership” are doing. Cap and Trade will cause a million or more to leave the GOP in disgust. It seems like 26% Voter Registration is too high a number for them. It is 10.65% in Massachusetts, perhaps that is the goal?

Jul 072017
 

Fresh on the heels of the suicide run announcement by David Hadley, more information has poured in to your intrepid blogger.

It has come to our attention that someone who may or may not have been Jessica Patterson had been busy at work trying to recruit an entire slate of down-ticket Republican candidates for things like LG, SOS, Ag, etc. to go along with their Governor Candidate. David Hadley had first expressed interest 3 months ago, but took a step aside when San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer became the flavor of the month.

The significance is that Patterson, along with David Stafford Reade, Ssssteve Davey and others work for “GOP Leadership”. That is a nebulous term for the “establishment”, they are professionals who do the bidding of their paying clients. I’ve asserted in earlier posts that Davey’s affiliation with them was as much to try and advance his next paycheck (Ted Gaines) as anything. Patterson has worked for Meg Whitman and other similar efforts in the past and her movements and actions are very purposeful.

While on one hand, I am glad to see that there was a bona-fide effort to recruit “down ticket” candidates, I am quite frustrated that they were impervious to John Cox and his basically limitless resources. Soon, Mr. Cox will release his 6/30 campaign finance reports that will show a slew of donors. It is likely that John Cox already has more donors than the entire “Squish Team” being recruited by Mrs. Patterson and the others on the leadership team.

This weekend is an event called the “Reformers” weekend. It is held at the ranch/house of world-famous liberal Republican ICON Brooks Firestone. Travis Allen has been invited, as has Mr. Hadley. John Cox? Nope. The Reformers weekend is a who’s who of “moderates”, “Liberals”, “Country-Clubbers”, “RINO’s” and any other label you want to apply that omits the word Conservative. I guess this is another endorsement of John Cox.

That said, the following weekend is a meeting of the CAGOP board of directors. (July 15th)

In advance of said meeting, I was also informed that the CAGOP Vice Chair Kristen Olsen had reached out to all three Governor Candidates to schedule interviews. While I am glad the Vice Chair called all three, the timing is clear. The day after David Hadley announced, following three months of insider machinations to find an opponent to John Cox, the calls have gone out.

As a man who reads tea leaves and prognosticates about biased media polls, I can predict with a great degree of confidence that David Hadley will get endorsed by the CAGOP.

There is a second nexus – proposition 14. Mr. Munger poured a ton of his personal wealth in to getting proposition 14 passed. It has been a disaster that has caused the price of elections to skyrocket and has seen Republicans off the ballot in as much as half the state of California. It has hastened the demise of the CAGOP. I respect Mr. Munger’s actions with regard to voter registration and large donations to the party, but he also mortally wounded the CAGOP with Prop 14.

I do believe that the discussion will be started at the 7/15 CAGOP Board Meeting, if not a position taken IN FAVOR of keeping Proposition 14.

The labor unions are indeed readying a campaign to overturn Prop 14. They are furious at the amount of money it has cost them, you can make bank that they have had their fill.

I take pause at Travis Allen’s invitation to the RINO-fest on the coast with Brooks Firestone and company. I also take pause that when Travis Allen was a newly minted assemblymember, we was frequently seen with the “Mod-Squad” at events, including having Mr. Munger himself on the floor of the Assembly for bring-your-spouse-day.

The battle lines are clear. The establishment is going to establish. David Hadley endorsed, Prop 14 supported and a slew of previously unknown statewide candidates within that orbit will be revealed.

I’ll take John Cox.

Jul 062017
 

I have no strong personal animus against David Hadley. I don’t really know him, other than the fact that he is an Eastern Liberal style Republican.

The California Blanket Primary puts all candidates on the same ballot with the top two going in to the fall runoff. With the addition of Travis Allen to the ballot, people started asking if Travis Allen was actually going to file for Governor as he still has three terms left. In order for Mr. Allen to run for Governor, he would have to surrender his remaining 3 terms in the Assembly at appx 100K a year plus benefits.

Travis Allen has also said publicly that neither he nor his initiative are getting supported by the institutional donors or incumbent Partisan Republican Politicians. This further suggests that Mr. Allen’s “Run” for governor is more of a fundraising / publicity stunt. The assemblyman appears to be on his own.

However, David Hadley becomes the third notable Republican in the Governor’s race. Hadley will now split the Republican vote in half (as I am of the belief that Travis will not actually run for Governor), basically ensuring that Antonio Villaraigosa  will join Gay Marriage Gavin Newsome in the runoff.

Hadley is a former assemblymember, having served one term in AD66 before getting drubbed by the feckless Al Muratsuchi. Hadley lost re-election by a stunning 8 percentage points.

It has been clear to me since I decided to endorse John Cox for Governor that the GOP establishment, many of whom I consider friends, were not going to sit idly by and let John Cox be the nominee.

Without hearing this directly from any member of the legislature, it is clear that the nexus is John Cox’ neighborhood legislature initiative that would create a 12,000 member Assembly. Public Polls, the same ones that predicted Donald Trump’s doom and that currently say everyone hates Donald Trump, are also claiming that it is unpopular. These polls give people within the establishment cover for refusing to support Mr. Cox – when it is also clear that the neighborhood legislature is an extreme threat to the status quo.

I learned many years ago that you do not threaten the Status Quo unless you have unlimited resources in order to get around the institutional roadblocks. While many Republican officeholders are good people, the problem is that they want to stay in office the same way and reap the benefits. It is what it is.

David Hadley has no chance of winning Governor. He had told people he was not going to declare until he raised $7.5 Million. I’d lay odds he has $1.98 right now. This is despite the fact that Mr. Hadley himself has told several people that wealthy GOP donor Charles T. Munger, Jr. has committed $1 Million to his effort. I am not sure how that works as one donor can only give about $28K.

Even if Mr. Munger could contribute $1 Million, Mr. Hadley would need another Million to get even with John Cox and then would need the gigantic list of small dollar donors that John Cox has amassed to appear as anything other than a foil.

The concept I have written about several times is called, “Controlled Failure”. I’ve seen it repeat itself many times – the 2018 Governor’s race is again a laboratory for that theory. It appears, if everything I have typed is true, that GOP leadership have recruited an already willing David Hadley in to the governor’s race against John Cox not because he can win (remember his humiliating defeat for re-election in 2016?), but because Hadley will ensure John Cox does not make it in to the runoff. It appears to not matter how much we (the CAGOP) lose, just as long as those directing the Titanic are still in command.

Notice, I have not even been able to discuss how liberal Hadley is or any of the issues of the day in California. I can only draw the conclusion that they don’t matter. Controlling failure does.

Welcome to the race Mr. Hadley. Unless David Hadley raises said $7.5 Million on his way to $20 Million, there is no way anyone can draw any other conclusion than he is trying to help Antonio Villaraigosa in to the fall.

P.S. Hadley is an Eastern Republican in the mold of Susan Collins, did I remember to tell you that?

May 262017
 

If so, why?

Wealthy Businessman John Cox declared his candidacy two months ago and entered the CA Governor Race with a Million Dollars of his own money. (With more coming)

6 Months ago, the talk was that we would have no one credible or funded in any statewide race. Now, the talk is about a near frenetic quest to find a second Republican to run against John Cox for Governor.

Meantime, there is no Lt. Gov Candidate, No Secretary of State Candidate, No Attorney General Candidate, No Controller Candidate for the GOP in 2018.

Yet, the New Majority PAC is trying with all their might to get the unpopular Mayor of San Diego, Kevin Faulconer in to the race. At one time, Faulconer was the liberal Republican star of the party, today his legacy is the Chargers moving to Inglewood. But, he does want to raise taxes on San Diegans!

This does not matter to the New Majority as it appears they have ideological issues with John Cox and have re-ignited their quest to make sure no Republican makes the runoff.

I’ve seen this pattern before, I call it “Controlled Failure”. This is the concept of primary sabotage in order to make sure if a Conservative wins a primary, he loses the general election in order to further the canard of Conservatives being unable to win. (I first saw this in 2002, when GOP leadership poured $10 Million in to a Treasurer Race, while Tom McClintock was leading in Polls for his Controller race… ultimately lost by 27,000 votes. McClintock received token support from GOP leadership)

Meantime, there is no Lt. Gov Candidate, No Secretary of State Candidate, No Attorney General Candidate, No Controller Candidate for the GOP in 2018.

Apparently, it is not just the left of the party that has a suicide pact, witness Tim Donnelly! Yes, the same Tim Donnelly (based on my research) whose personal financial situation is a disaster, has a failing radio show, likes to chase campaign staff, has run 3 failed referenda (where’s the money, Tim?), has a police record and may well be clinical on top of the previous list. (Did I mention that I am not a fan?) He popped up on Breitbart calling John Cox a moderate. Only in a pharmaceutically-induced fantasy, I guess.

Donnelly believes the Democrat Party is in disarray. He believes this is an open door to a Republican Governor. He thinks that should be him, when John Cox wrote himself a check larger than Donnelly’s maximum fundraising potential. Perhaps Tim Donnelly enters the race in order to enjoy being a candidate again for a few months and to get paid.

He is right about the dem party. Despite the all-out assault from the media and the “deep state” Trump keeps winning and Republicans keep winning elections.

But, it seems to be more than Republican Leadership and the New Majority can handle.

Just last night, while celebrating the #BODYSLAM victory of Greg Gianforte in Montana, I received my own un-named anonymous source leak of info. (If it is good for the NYT and WAPO, it is good for this blog, right?)

The leak is a well-placed GOP insider who indicated that Republican leadership are lobbying the rank and file GOP legislators (what few are left), to endorse David Hadley, Kevin Faulconer. (See also anyone not named John Cox).

If the GOP leadership understand what a threat John Cox is, perhaps Tim Donnelly’s therapist should explain the same thing to him?

Meantime, there is no Lt. Gov Candidate, No Secretary of State Candidate, No Attorney General Candidate, No Controller Candidate for the GOP in 2018.

The specific info is that a group of major GOP donors have not stopped trying to find a Governor candidate not named John Cox. David Hadley, a one-term Assemblymember who lost re-election by 8 points in 2016, went to Sacramento to speak to the aforementioned legislators in search of endorsements and money. Note that Hadley is basically out of the running for governor and is lining up a rematch for AD66 instead.

Now, it appears that the flavor of the week is Kevin Faulconer.

Why are they doing this? Is the goal to dilute Republican Votes assuring Antonio Villaraigosa joins fellow far left democrat Gavin Newsome in the runoff? Two well known GOP consultants are on Mr. Villaraigosa’s payroll. Do they believe that recruiting a moderate/liberal Republican and pouring money in to them will get that person in to the runoff? Or, it is another case of “controlling failure”, as in we’d rather lose with our guy than win with someone we can’t control?

I am all about being a team player, having supported many candidates for the GOP I was not thrilled with. However, it becomes difficult to the extreme to be a team player when I have a front row seat to another case of the moderate wing of the Republican Party apparently doing what they accuse the Conservatives of doing.

All the above said, it makes me like John Cox even more.

Did I mention that there is no Lt. Gov Candidate, No Secretary of State Candidate, No Attorney General Candidate, No Controller Candidate for the GOP in 2018?

Apr 112017
 

Most major California Newspapers will not write about internal polls, but Politico will. The most recent installment of that is the Antonio Villaraigosa Poll designed to make him look like a better challenger to Gavin Newsome.

There was a poll two weeks ago that has Gavin anytowsome Newsome at 28, John Cox at 18 and Antonio Suave at 11. Read more about John Cox here.

Enter Politico:

By now, the early polling in the 2018 gubernatorial race is fairly consistent: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is out in front, followed by a Republican (John Cox or, if he runs, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer), then every other Democrat in the race or mulling it. For former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the goal is to persuade potential donors and party activists that he is a strong No. 3.

His campaign last week released an internal poll by The Feldman Group, Inc., that puts Villaraigosa’s support at 20 percent — behind both Newsom (26 percent) and Cox (22 percent). That’s a tighter margin than in public polls (IGS last week had Villaraigosa at 11 percent). But Villaraigosa is betting on a different turnout model in the primary. The campaign is counting on the possibility that Latino voters who have not turned out in previous gubernatorial primaries will turn out in 2018, motivated in part by President Donald Trump.

So, Villaraigosa had to inflate latino turnout in order to get a better result for himself. Just how much? His own polling summary shows that they went fishing for latino voters an inflated them to 23% of the electorate in a non-Presidential year election by looking for people that may have voted once in the last 4 elections, or something like that.

The overall sample was not released, calling the whole summary in to question.

It has the usual pablum about how much people hate trump and how much Californians want more social justice (you know, like 52 Billion dollar tax increases, broken dams and the like).

What all polls lack mention of is the following: If John Cox is the only Republican in the running, he makes the Top Two. If another credible Republican files, they might as well endorse Antonio Villariagosa. Antonio Suave own pol lhas proven, the only way Antonio can get in the runoff is if he takes Gavin anytwosome Newsome down a couple notches and there is one Strong Republican on the ballot. Cox has dropped a million dollars in to his campaign on his way to still more.

It is also very interesting that none of the dems are polling the sanctuary state, the $52 Billion Dollar Tax Increase and any of the other extreme left wing issues on the floor of the State Legislature today. Actually, it is not.

If the populous in general gets the least bit informed of what the democrats did to them with their supermajority, Gavin Newsome will be returned to his Mansion in Marin County in pieces, as would Antoino Suave to his Mansion in Central LA.

Lastly, Antonio Suave says that the math dictates that you need to get to 33% in order to make the runoff. That in and of itself should have told him NOT to release this internal poll. 26 is a lot closer to 33 than 20 is, especially when there are all kinds of pigs running to the political buffet table. With Cox staked to 22% of the vote in a turnout environment over sampled with minorities, the chances of a D vs D runoff are not as good as pundits would expect.

If John Cox is the only funded, credible Republican that files, we have a great chance to break the top-two curse and actually be able to have a real contest of values in the fall of 2018. I hope this is not lost on the rest of the interested parties within the CAGOP.