Aug 192017
 

For those of you that read this blog, you may recall that sometimes I take a break from news reporting and excoriating political targets for personal updates. This is such a time. This post is intended to be serious. If you’ve never read a post of mine before please read this one.

As I have been advocating for the ouster of Chad Mayes as Assembly Permanent Minority Leader, I’ve noticed some extreme behavior and disturbing personality traits that have manifest that have given me serious pause. As a man nearing 15 years of Sobriety, and as a man with extensive experience working with some profoundly sick people in recovery groups, alarm bells are going off.

I know that Mr. Mayes is being supported by a close-knit inner circle that are attempting to insulate him from the firestorm. I know that “3rd House” Donors and lobbyists are putting pressure on Republican Members to keep Chad Mayes in Place. I know people are being threatened as well. It is also clear that many members of the Assembly Republican Caucus are very uneasy over the entire situation. It is also clear that the democrat leadership have been supplying Mr. Mayes with donors in order to fill his warchest for the coming election.

If you’re a Republican Member of the legislature – there is an angle beyond the donors, lobbyists, money, threats, chaos and turmoil to consider. What do you do when your current leader demonstrates an incurable behavior pattern that will destroy himself and everyone else around him?

When someone overcomes a major life issue like addiction, it is because you take a good hard look at your life, who you are and how you got to be where you are at. In AA, it is known as the 12 steps. At the beginning of every AA meeting, a passage of the AA Big Book called “How it Works” is read… there is a key part that is the basis for the remainder of my post:

    Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path. Those who do not recover are people who cannot or will not completely give themselves to this simple program, usually men and women who are constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves. There are such unfortunates. They are not at fault; they seem to have been born that way. They are naturally incapable of grasping and developing a way of life which demands rigorous honesty. Their chances are less than average. There are those, too, who suffer from grave emotional and mental disorders, but many of them do recover if they have the capacity to be honest.

The most disturbing thing about watching Chad Mayes speak to the Riverside GOP and listening to him address the California Republican Party Board of Directors was his absolute lack of honesty. Some try to dismiss it as him actually believing the absurdities coming out of his mouth.

I know what that is like, I used to live there and until I could get honest with myself, I kept getting drunk. It was not until I was breathless at 325 pounds at the age of 31 that I had the moment of honesty. I could not tell the truth even though I meant well, and it was because I was not completely gone that the integrity stuffed deep inside of me was finally able to come out. It saved my life, literally – I was on blood pressure medication and cholesterol medication at the age of 31.

I fear for Chad Mayes. I fear for anyone near him. He has retaliated against Melissa Melendez, he has cut off the “One Ask Program” in an attempt to retaliate against Republican Groups that have spoken out against him.

Mr. Mayes was trying to control the circumstances of his appearance at the Riverside GOP, demanding to speak before Melissa Melendez, threatening several times to not come unless he got his way on things, and attempting to intimidate volunteers in to doing what he wanted. It is my belief that Mayes may well have had a hand in the leftist protesters that showed up at the RivCO GOP Meeting.

Mr. Mayes told a string of lies leading up to the Cap and Trade vote, issuing deceptive tweets, telling GOP Board Members there was no deal, telling constituents there was no deal – even as he had enablers like Rocky Chavez, Marc Steinorth and others lined up and ready to go.

Despite 20 County Parties, the State Party, the Impact Republicans, 4 Big Donor Lincoln Clubs and a host of local groups calling on Chad Mayes to resign, he has defiantly told the LA Times, “I am not going to capitulate,” he said. “I’m going to continue to keep pushing forward.”

It is clear that Chad Mayes’ ego is out of control. He has bought a lie of epic proportions and has determined that he would rather be completely destroyed than back down from the grotesque error he has made. He has based his behavior on polling data few people have seen, but those that have drew a completely different conclusion than him.

It is also clear that Chad Mayes sees everyone around him as an extension of himself and therefore they are expendable and inferior. There is no other way to explain why he is so dug in despite the firestorm and body of evidence that surrounds him. There is no other way to explain his sexual exploits as juxtaposed with the faith he claims.

When I encounter someone who is incapable of grasping their own faults and is incapable of contrition, it is truly a scary experience. It nearly killed me as the price I paid for my own delusion of perfection was alcoholism.

Chad Mayes seems content to let everyone and everything burn down with him in his spiral.

In politics, people throw the word Narcissist around so much it has no meaning. I know a few Narcissists in politics. It is my untrained, 15 years in recovery working with a lot of messed up people opinion that Mr. Mayes is such a person.

Most in psychology will tell you that you can not cure a Narcissist. I was told I was a Narcissist when I was younger, but the spirit of the Lord that was inside me from a young age (I accepted Christ at age 5), was greater than the illness and addiction.

It is my own personal battle with arrogance, ego, addiction, honesty and the like that allows me to have a perspective for these people.

I am divulging some personal details on purpose (as I know some people in politics may attempt to use this information against me), I believe I know of which I speak. Seeing Chad Mayes was like looking in a mirror from years ago before the power of the Lord and the 12 steps of AA helped save me from myself.

Chad Mayes needs to rekindle his relationship with the Lord and needs to do so somewhere far away from the spotlight.

Meanwhile, I am imploring his fellow assemblymembers to take a break from the political firestorm to consider his behavior and the toxic effects it is having beyond the political realm. Please relieve Chad Mayes of command and get as far away from him as possible. And, if you are a person of faith, pray for him that he will find the ability to be honest – because only a willing honest heart will make it possible for Chad Mayes to become a whole person. Right now he is dangerous to everyone and everything he is around.

Aug 192017
 

This is from Harmeet Dhillon, CAGOP National Committeewoman

Assembly Leadership Update: there are plenty of votes for a new leader if Chad resigns (he’s announced he “won’t capitulate”), but a good contingent of members will not vote to vacate the chair, don’t ask me why.

It’s time for every activist represented by a Republican in the Assembly to pick up the phone and keyboard and ask those members to do the right thing — vote to vacate the chair, vote for a new leader.

Here is contact info for all of them. These calls/emails are most effective when made by their constituents or better yet, leaders of conservative groups active in their districts.

Assemblyman Dante Acosta – (916) 319-2038 – or email Assemblymemberacosta@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman Frank Bigelow – (916)319-2005 – or email Assemblymemberbigelow@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman Phillip Chen – (916) 319-2055 – or email Assemblymemberchen@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman Jordan Cunningham – (916) 319-2035 – or email Assemblymembercunningham@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman Brian Dahle – (916) 319-2001 – or email Assemblymemberdahle@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman Health Flora – (916) 319-2012 – or email Assemblymemberflora@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman James Gallagher – (916) 319-2003 – or email Assemblymembergallagher@asm.ca.gov 

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley – (916) 319-2006 – or email AssemblymemberKiley@asm.ca.gov

Assemblyman Tom Lackey – (916) 319-2036 – or email Assemblymemberlackey@asm.ca.gov

Assemblywoman Marie Waldron – (916) 319-2075 or email Assemblymemberwaldron@asm.ca.gov

Aug 152017
 

I am learning that there is a movement afoot to allow Chad Mayes to resign and keep his ego in tact. In essence, it is to be a soft landing allowing him to resign without having to acknowledge the disastrous consequences of his tenure – including losing AD60, AD65 and AD66 in 2016. This leads right back to a post from a week ago about the coronation of Jay Obernolte.

The consensus appears to be avoiding conflict at all costs – similar to the feckless pattern I’ve seen in Republican ranks for years – even if it means retaining the mortally wounded Chad Mayes for a few extra face-saving months. Some members are alleged to be privately telling potential suitors for leadership positions that they will vote to retain Chad Mayes if there is a fight versus a peaceful transition.

The situation is complicated as Mayes is alleged to have a cadre of sycophants helping him hold together amidst the firestorm related to his personal and leadership failures.

Melissa Melendez is making calls as well as Jay Obernolte to members of the Assembly in an attempt to see if they can get critical mass to be selected as the next caucus leader.

If you want to call some of these folks to register your opinion, their office numbers are simple to derive. Dial 916-319-20XX. XX=District Number. For example Chad Mayes is 916-319-2042

All this said, Here is my take and where everyone stands as of now: Click here to see the caucus webpage

CHAD MAYES Assembly Republican Leader, District 42 – obviously, he is voting for himself

DANTE ACOSTA Assembly District 38 – Was opposed to Cap and Trade because he did not like the deal. It is likely he is a vote to retain Mayes, but has made no definitive statements

TRAVIS ALLEN Assembly District 72 – Is running for Governor to everyone’s right. There is no way he supports retaining Mayes, who he supports for leader is unknown although it is alleged he is negotiating a deal with those interested

CATHARINE BAKER Assembly District 16 – Is the most liberal member of the Caucus. She is largely given a pass for her cap and trade vote as she campaigned from the left on the environment. She is regarded as a Chad Mayes loyalist.

FRANK BIGELOW Assembly District 5 – Was a yes vote on Cap and Trade who voted no as he was not needed. (We detailed his twitter activity as evidence) He has been part of Mayes’ Leadership Team from the beginning. It is a reasonable conclusion he is a Chad Mayes loyalist.

WILLIAM “BILL” BROUGH Assembly District 73 – a hard-core Conservative, solid vote against Cap and Trade and Chad Mayes

PHILLIP CHEN Assembly District 55 – I spoke with him directly as have others. It is clear he was solidly against Cap and Trade and is lukewarn at best toward Chad Mayes.

STEVEN CHOI Assembly District 68 – was an opponent of Cap and Trade, activists in Orange County indicate he is opposed to Chad Mayes as well

ROCKY CHAVEZ Assembly District 76 – an original #CAPANDTRAITOR and Mayes Loyalist

JORDAN CUNNINGHAM Assembly District 35 – an original #CAPANDTRAITOR and likely a Mayes Loyalist

BRIAN DAHLE Assembly District 1 – voted no on Cap and Trade. Insider activity in his camp indicates that he is lukewarn on Chad Mayes at best.

HEATH FLORA Assembly District 12 – an original #CAPANDTRAITOR and likely a Mayes Loyalist

VINCE FONG Assembly District 34 – a rumored, never real candidate against Chad Mayes for leader. Definately opposed to Chad Mayes

JAMES GALLAGHER Assembly District 3 – was an opponent of Cap and Trade from the beginning. Is regarded as being close to Chad Mayes, however this could be changing as some of his allies in the assembly are off the reservation.

MATTHEW HARPER Assembly District 74 – was an opponent of Cap and Trade, yet has been non-committal regarding leadership, roiling activists in Orange County.

KEVIN KILEY Assembly District 6 – responded to me directly about his consistent from the beginning opposition to Cap and Trade. I’ve yet to get comment from him regarding Chad Mayes, some staffers are claiming he is a yes vote. I will be contacting his office shortly.

TOM LACKEY Assembly District 36 – was an outspoken opponent of Cap and Trade within the Caucus. It is likely he is not on the Chad Mayes bandwagon either.

BRIAN MAIENSCHEIN Assembly District 77 – voted yes on a couple Cap and Trade procedural votes before opposing the final reading. Unclear his stance on Mayes.

DEVON MATHIS Assembly District 26 – shocked many with his apparently sudden vote in favor of Cap and Trade. Counting him as a Mayes Vote is also as unpredictable

MELISSA MELENDEZ Assembly District 67 – has been put in the “Dog House” by Chad Mayes.

JAY OBERNOLTE Assembly District 33 – rumored favorite to replace Chad Mayes. Looks more likely as he has not been retaliated against and “The Deal” is in the works.

JIM PATTERSON Assembly District 23 – openly hostile to Cap and Trade and Chad Mayes.

MARC STEINORTH Assembly District 40 – original #CAPANDTRAITOR. As a side note, he hates Jay Obernolte with a purple passion.

RANDY VOEPEL Assembly District 71 – have yet to see him make a bad vote. Unclear where he stands on Mayes.

MARIE WALDRON Assembly District 75 – she is a hard-core conservative who opposed the Cap and Trade disaster. However, she has been confirmed to be a Chad Mayes loyalist.

As you can see, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Chad Mayes will lose his post as Assembly Permanent Minority Leader. This alone should be cause for activists and those of us left in California that have not gone insane to burn the whole thing down. I fear that many in the Assembly that are tone-deaf to the grassroots, regardless of their vote on Cap and Trade are going to have to feel the fire if indeed Mr. Mayes is allowed to continue to infest the office of Minority Leader.

Aug 112017
 

Given that President Trump has had such virulent opposition, I have been remiss to disagree with him in public the few times when I have. Here’s one of them. Recently, I started looking in to what is happening with Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and the review of a ton of National Monuments designated in the last 20+ years.

Anyone who knows me, knows that my wife and I spend our vacation time traveling to National Parks and getting outdoors. I’m far from being a tree hugger, but as a hardcore conservative I also see the value in public land and preservation of these designations.

Currently under review by the Trump Administration, and I say this as a full-fledged Trump/MAGA supporter, are a list of lands designated by the previous Administration as parks or monuments under the Antiquities Act of 1906. My understanding of the purpose of the review by the Department of the Interior is to determine whether these designations should be rescinded by proclamations through executive order. In California for example, the areas under review include the Cascade Siskiyous, San Gabriel Mountains, Mojave Trails, Giant Sequoia, Carrizo Plain, Sand to Snow and others that aren’t just for hikers and bird watchers – but also used by hunters, campers and horsemen.

Apart from my understanding and appreciation for National Parks and monuments, as a conservative I have no problem with reviews of these land designations per se, but I would have an issue with any action being taken through executive order. While we conservatives crowed when Obama governed recklessly using the executive order, we can’t turn around and then say it’s ok if our guys do it; Congress must be included if this is a path that this Administration wants to explore. Truth be told, I get very nervous any time I hear “executive order” outside of clear national emergency or defense purposes.

I am far from the only one using my Ronald Reagan era cowboy boots to kick up a little dust on this, a number of other Constitutional conservatives have raised a red flag on the potential rescinding of monument status through executive order. Apart from the process however, let me be clear, I want  Secretary Zinke to keep all of these lands designated parks and monuments unchanged because it’s good for the taxpaying public.

Conservatives are the original and the true conservationists. Despite current events in California, we don’t hold these views because we are acquiescing to a left-wing agenda aimed at climate change. Rather, many of us understand that the preservation of our natural heritage is important for the future, and it also maintains both economic and recreational opportunities for families, outdoors people, hunters, off-roaders, campers and the thousands of jobs supported by these lands.

In a very selfish way I also support keeping parks and monuments because I also have seen and experienced some of the most beautiful country at our National Parks and monuments traveling with my wife on our yearly adventures – and to be brutally honest as I always am, I doubt those experiences would be open and available if they weren’t designated as such.

Aug 102017
 

I just got a political nuclear device delivered to my inbox.

The Placer GOP, by a vote of 37-0 (3 ABS) unanimously censured the 8 #CAPANDTRAITORS and called on Chad Mayes to resign.

There is significance to all of this. This is the first GOP Committee to light up ALL the #CAPANDTRAITORS. The previous 10 committees had focused on the philanderer only.

The fact that the vote was 37-0 means that Senator Jim Nielsen, in particular is on board with this as some of his staff are on the Central Committee. (BTW, one of the Abstentions was Frank Bigelow’s rep. Bigelow supported Cap and Trade but voted no on the floor)

Before I explain further the machinations – let’s look at the letter. It is incendiary.

This is the most strongly worded letter from any GOP Central Committee yet and will likely result in Media Calls to Placer GOP Chairman Dennis Revell, who is also a Public Relations executive by trade.

The part that resonated with me is the references to Ronald Reagan. Revell was a son-in-law to Ronald Reagan.

While this is not the censure resolution against the 8 Republicans that actually voted yes, that will follow and will be posted when I have received a copy of it.

Back to the machinations.

There are staff of Jim Nielsen and Doug LaMalfa on the Placer GOP Central Committee. Some or all of them had to vote yes. I was of the belief that an attempt by the Placer GOP would fail to reach 2/3. I held my tongue when I was alerted that David Stafford Reade had led the effort to blast Chad Mayes at the Yolo GOP Central Committee.

The connection is this: David Stafford Reade is Jim Nielsen’s Chief of Staff. Reade was also Doug LaMalfa’s Chief of Staff before he went to Congress. Reade has staff loyal to him deployed amongst several GOP Central Comittees all over the north state.

They include Saolo, the chair of Butte, staffers on Sutter, Sacramento, Glenn, Colusa, Tehama and of course Placer. All of those counties are in Jim Nielsen’s Senate District. I’ve written about the money that David Stafford Reade was involved in the deployment of all over the north state to influence the outcome of GOP Central Committee Elections in the North State (actually, 44 counties statewide)…

Yolo is David’s home county. David led the effort there. (Note: I had written that Reade made the motion, that is inaccurate, it was Rob Olsen that made the motion in Yolo)

Now, David’s top lieutenants were involved in yet another County Party lighting up Chad Mayes. I was told that one of Reade’s people spoke out against the resolution against the 7 others and suggested the committee stick with lighting up Mayes only. (implied is that Mayes is the real target)

I wrote before and I will write again that David Stafford Reade wants Joe Justin’s Job. It is a huge pay raise and would make Mr. Reade a kingmaker giving him real power to go with his paper castle in the North of California. Remember, Joe Justin is the chief of staff and strategist for Chad Mayes. While Justin and Reade have been aligned mostly in the past, it was a marriage of paycheck, donor appeasement and convenience. Now that Justin and Mayes are wounded, they are getting the Reade treatment.

I wish I could enjoy the Placer County Republican Party unloading on everyone – but I just can’t see it for what is in the surface. I feel the Earth moving and I have no one to root for.

I sincerely hope the new GOP leader, (and mark my words – Chad Mayes may survive on 8/22 at the Caucus vote… but he will not make it through 2017 as leader) cleans house. We need real conservatives without personal conflicts of interest (ahem, paychecks) clouding the advice they give their members.

Aug 092017
 

Today, I received a notification that Chad Mayes had Melissa Melendez stripped of her committee assignments and moved her to the Beth Gaines office. (Known as the Dog house – a tiny 300 square foot office in the corner of the 5th floor of the legislature building)

Gaines held this office for an extended period until various and sundry legislators earned the wrath of leadership. Now, Melissa Melendez is in the doghouse for heresy. Note that Vince Fong and Jay Obernolte have also challenged Chad Mayes, but it is Melendez who is getting singled out. Is it because Chad Mayes has issues with women he can’t sleep with? Or is this an out of control ego episode from someone experiencing the devastating loss of control similar to March of 1945?

That said, it has come to my attention that my post (on this blog that no one reads, but everyone seems to react to) about David Stafford Reade leading the Chad must resign charge in Yolo County the other night has drawn a reaction. Mr. Reade has been telling insiders that Mayes and his entire staff need to go. (Note: I had written that Reade made the motion, that is inaccurate, it was Rob Olsen that made the motion in Yolo)

Does this mean that David Stafford Reade wants Joe Justin’s Job? Were Reade to get some sort of Assembly Caucus senior staff job, he’d be a king-maker and get $160-$175K a year salary versus the roughly $110k he is making now.

David Stafford Reade, like Steve Frank, ran for Assembly in 1996. Reade got hammered for having 3 DUI’s and was defeated by Sam Aanestad. Similar to Steve Frank, it appears that Mr. Reade has never recovered from that campaign. As I have documented on this blog, Reade has had a pattern of years of abusive behavior and ethical issues. However, Reade is a top lieutenant of “Republican Leadership” and would have the connections and be familiar to the power brokers fearful of real change in leadership.

While I rail on Reade, he is an ideological Conservative. In that regard he’d be an improvement over the young inexperienced staff brought in after the Kristen Olsen purge.

And, to be clear, Reade is doing nothing wrong by earning tens of thousands of consulting fees from PAC’s and Republican Leadership. Reade needs to focus on trying to build the Republican Party, but prefers to try to get even with your intrepid blogger by threatening people directly or bullying people through proxies or attempting to meet out retribution on anyone else that he deems to have crossed him. When your political life is characterized by a string of people in multiple counties that you’ve bullied, threatened, tried to destroy and the like, your effectiveness as a leader is diminished.

Mr. Frank on the other hand, languishes in irrelevance after a failed attempt to monetize the Tea Party. Having suffered a recent heart attack, he has spent his recovery from his health issues trying to settle personal scores rather than trying to rally Conservatives to oust Chad Mayes.

It is people like Reade and Frank that make me despair that the CA GOP is salvageable.

CA GOP Chairman Jim Brulte on the other hand has a five star mess that he could extricate himself from quickly. I will go on the record as saying I have investigated his consulting firm and his role in it and it is my belief that he has no conflict of interest. I do believe that Mr. Brulte should be much more demonstrative in his treatment of Chad Mayes and Kristen Olsen with regard to helping remove them both from positions of influence, and by not doing so he is creating the appearance that he supports what they have done.

While the Chairman has told me emphatically that he is not calling on Jay Obernolte’s behalf, I spoke to a legislator today and a legislative staffer today that indicated he has. I will be having follow up conversations with them both where I will request a three way call with the Chairman so we can hash out what is happening. This is creating an appearance that Mr. Brulte is trying to control an outcome, which then leads to speculation and questions about motives.

The main injustice here is that it is even a debate about weather Chad Mayes will survive the leadership vote on 8/22. I’m being told that he just might, and the King Jong Un move of throwing Melissa Melendez in the Dog House bears that out. The number of fake no votes on Cap and Trade also suggest that the Jay Obernolte (or anyone else) leadership drill may not succeed.

If Chad Mayes’ lack of personal integrity and his ego are so completely unbalanced that he stays in office, let alone leadership, after 8/22 he should be moved to the Dog House.

Aug 092017
 

I’ve heard it for years. Munger. Blame everything on Charles Munger.

Charles Munger has help. CREPAC – the Realtors. Dental PAC. Chevron. PG&E. The California Chamber of Commerce (aka Chamber PAC) also JOBSPAC. If you look at the reports, you will see this crew behind every effort to take over partisan offices and central committees. Heck, if you look really close, you will see Sierra Pacific Industries, Eli Lilly and a host of other household names in there as well.

If you look even closer – you will see that Charles Munger is no longer bankrolling the California Republican Party and further research shows that his voter registration efforts have abated. If those statements were not clear, take a look at the CAGOP Treasurer Report at the next convention, you will see much smaller checks from Mr. Munger to the CRP. Ask any of the major vendors that do voter registration, they will tell you their efforts are no longer funded by Mr. Munger. It appears that he is focused on buying mail and TV ads for campaign independent expenditures only now, and who knows if that continues with the irrelevance of the GOP in California.

The lesson here is know your enemy. Know who they are and what they are doing. You can learn a lot from searching the California Secretary of State’s Website.

Lesson Number 2? Know why Donors do what they do. For most it is a business decision and is not steeped in ideology. They need people they can work with. It sounds slimy, but it is the world we live in.

If you’re a conservative activist in California, you know that your candidate for Assembly, State Senate or Congress is not going to be in favor. This means from the beginning of the campaign, the volunteers and activists have to organize and work smart.

  1. Stay off social media with conspiracy theories while you are campaigning actively for a candidate. Chemtrails, Flouride, Illuminati stories are a few such items I see, it does not matter if you believe this stuff is true, most think it is crazy. Accept it and drive on. Persist and you will make your candidate look bad.
  2. Sign-Waiving is useless. If you are on overpasses or street corners, you are wasting your time. I have seen this time and time again amongst tea party and conservative groups.
  3. Walk Precincts, knock on doors and talk to people. This is what people / volunteers hate doing. This is the single most effective thing you can do for a candidate. Even the most poorly funded candidate can afford voter lists from the county that can be used to make precinct lists.
  4. Make Phone Calls if you are not physically able to walk neighborhoods.
  5. Let the candidate and their staff do all the public events. You simply can not meet enough people by going to rotary clubs, republican clubs, etc to win an election. The candidate and their staff can find new volunteers at these events you can work with, but you should be on the phone and at the front door.
  6. Give your candidate money. Ask others to give them money. The more donors a candidate has, the more likely “The Swamp” does not go after them. There is strength in numbers.

Too many times, when the mass money from “The Swamp” comes, it overwhelms the Conservative Target because there has been precious little contact in the neighborhood. When the Mail and Ads come down and the target of them is standing on the street corner with signs, it actually makes the attacks more effective because raising the visability of the subject of smears causes people to ask the wrong questions.

IF you’ve actually been out there doing the work and telling individual people the story, then the attacks do not work.

Once “The Swamp” starts dropping the money bomb then what?

  1. Get ahold of everyone you know on a personal level, tell them that “CREPAC, the Spirit of Democracy or whatever” is spending huge to elect a tax-raiser (or whatever the issue is). Are you going to let them win? Can you help us reach people?
  2. Then late at night or early in the morning when you can’t call people or walk precincts, use social media and email to forward your guy’s stuff. It takes 7-10 repetitions, so once a day on social media and once every other day via email is the right interval. Again, if you are doing this without also walking precincts or making phone calls – it is a waste
  3. Give your candidate money. Ask others to give them money.

Money – Conservatives are the worst donors in the world. This is why Conservative candidates are sitting ducks a lot of the time for “The Swamp” to take out. Stop calling yourselves “Fiscal Conservatives” as an excuse for not donating to causes. If you support something, yet are unwilling to even give $20 to it, you really don’t support it. Remember “Faith without works is dead”.

I have a really hard time feeling bad for groups of people that complain about a Heath Flora or a Rocky Chavez in a safe district who are “Moderates” that go up on Cap and Trade when they never knocked on a door, made a call or gave a dime – yet there they are on Facebook fighting the good fight.

Drop the campaign sign, get off of Facebook, stick a crowbar in your checkbook and then let’s complain about election results.

Next up – I am going to tie posts 1-5 together so that there is a clear sense of what it takes and what you can do to burn down the California Republican Party and take our party back from the donors, squishes, unprincipled, elitists and (fill in the type of heresy here).

You can’t win unless you take ownership of your part. You can’t win unless you are willing to do the work. To be continued.

Aug 082017
 

I want to repeat a couple things:

I know Jay Obernolte to be an ethical, honest man of integrity. I trust his judgement, but some things have been happening around him that give me pause. This is a report of insider machinations that needs to be made so that the rest of us understand what is happening.

On Tue of last week, I spoke to Mr. Obernolte on condition of confidentiality. He indicated that a few people had approached him about running for leader. I said nothing until He had started making calls and it got out.

Jay is extremely intelligent, successful in life and has an excellent work ethic. In short, he has the skill set to do the job.

All of the positive attributes I lavish on Jay Obernolte also apply to Melissa Melendez – the key difference between the two is that Melissa is a full-portfolio Conservative. Jay is not. Melissa is rumored to be looking at running for leader. If Melissa ran against Jay Obernolte and I had a vote – it would be extremely difficult to choose as it would pit a long-term high school friend I respect against a Conservative hero.

The Republican Caucus in the legislature is 25 members. You need 13 in order to get elected leader. At one point Vince Fong of Bakersfield had 10-11 lined up. It is alleged that Mr. Obernolte has 15 as of today, I believe the number is in the 10-13 range with a lot in flux. What I hope is that Vince Fong and Melissa Melendez are tapped by Jay for key roles in the team and they avoid a meltdown in the 8/22 Caucus meeting.

Events are leading me to believe that the “Leadership / Donor community” is rolling off of Chad Mayes and on to Jay Obernolte for leader. Either Jay locked up the votes and forced them to join in or there is an anointing going on. This will make it extremely difficult for Melissa Melendez or anyone else to get to 13, and this may also be part of the nexus for some of a few key pieces of evidence:

  1. CA GOP Chairman Jim Brulte, who has been lambasted for appearing to be defending Chad Mayes in recent weeks has now started making calls on Obernolte’s behalf. Was Brulte one of those that had talked to Mr. Obernolte about replacing Chad Mayes? (Update: Mr. Brulte indicated that while he did call legislators, he did not discuss Jay Obernolte or the leadership fight specifically)
  2. Mr. Brulte and Mr. Obernolte are indeed close, Brulte has flown several times on Mr. Obernolte’s jet to events or vacations.
  3. It is alleged that Chad Mayes will be “passing the baton” to Jay Obernolte – by stepping aside and asking his leadership team that have not committed to Jay to commit to him. (This may have already happened, contributing to the estimated vote count of 15)
  4. David Stafford Reade, a key lieutenant in the leadership team was the maker of the motion on the Yolo GOP last night (8/7/2017) to endorse the removal of Chad Mayes as leader. This suggests that the donor community has also pivoted with Mr. Brulte away from Mayes and onto Obernolte.
  5. It is alleged that Jay is making deals with individual members for their participation and support. This is smart politics.

I have ripped on Chevron incessantly for their lavish spending on liberal Republicans as a part of the small crew of large donors. They and other Oil Companies popped up with large amounts of money donated during the run up to the cap and trade disaster.

Three other Assembly lawmakers who are not typically swing votes also received more than $10,000 from oil interests. They are Democrat Blanca Rubio, who backed the deal, and Republicans Jay Obernolte and Vince Fong, who opposed it.

While the money concerns me, it is standard fair for industry to lobby and spread cash out during major bills. Seeing arch-conservative Fong and Mr. Obernolte bring in similar amounts of Oil Money concerns me less. I was indeed told by an oil man that the oil industry dodged a major bullet with the Cap and Trade bill – don’t worry, there is always next year for the democrats.

I have several questions for an Obernolte leadership tenure:

Since Jay has been with his wife since I first met him in 1985 (she was his girlfriend then), I know that the recent string of Republican leaders who have used the CA GOP as a dating service or their position of government power as a mating/dating service will end with Jay as he is a faithful man. Will Mr. Obernolte enforce some sort of personal discipline standard on his team?

Joe Justin is one of the best campaign consultants I have ever met. Working with him on the Bill Halldin Campaign was one of the best experiences of my career as an operative. I’d recommend him to anyone who wants to win election.

However, I have been fiercely critical of his part in the drill for the cap and trade deal, his potential conflicts of interest and his very liberal ideology for a Republican. There is another man by the last name of Zimmerman that appears to have a similar pedigree within the capitol staff (he is not a campaign guy in addition like Joe is). Zimmerman was brought in after disgraced former permanent minority leader Kristen Olsen purged all of the old-school conservatives and brought in new, inexperienced younger caucus staff.

Will Jay Obernolte bring in new staff that are Conservative Republicans who are dedicated to their jobs (aka free of potential conflicts) who will give good solid advice to the Assembly Republicans, or will the Kristen Olsen staffers continue?

Will Jay Obernolte allow the “One-Ask-Program” to be dismantled as Chad Mayes had threatened to do on his way out the door? Will Mr. Obernolte keep it in place, thus securing 80% of the CA GOP’s budget for several years to come? (This, by the way is why “leadership” has so much influence in the CA GOP) Will Obernolte figure out another arrangement to keep the CA GOP solvent?

What will Jay Obernolte’s role in CAGOP leadership be? Who does he support to replace Kristen Olsen, Jim Brulte? What does he do to rally the demoralized and enraged grassroots?

I am going to finish this update by saying that I trust Jay Obernolte as a man. I am concerned that some around him could manipulate him in to a similarly destructive course as happened to Chad Mayes.

He has the skill set and the potential to be extremely effective for the California Republican Party and I am cheering for him to succeed.

Aug 062017
 

As the lynch mobs have been burning the countryside in search of #CAPANDTRAITORS, your intrepid blogger is weighing in to provide some information:

My own Assemblymember, Kevin Kiley (AD06) said the following in an email:

Hi Aaron,
Thanks for the message. I was a firm no, and everyone was well aware of that. I’ve spoken against it strongly in all of my public remarks in recent weeks, such as yesterday’s Rocklin Chamber GRC breakfast and last week’s town hall.
Kevin
I replied thanking him for responding so quickly and the email addresses I had for him and his Chief of Staff now appear disabled. I think that means he shut down the gmail accounts he was using for his campaign. Hopefully, I will still be able to reach him for comment in the future. As of the writing of this post, Kevin Kiley has yet to make a vote I disagree with. At the time of the writing of this post, I am leaning heavily toward early-endorsing Mr. Kiley.
Frank Bigelow (AD05): See the embedded screenshot of him liking a tweet by democrat Phil Ting extolling the virtues of the Cap and Trade agreement. He also retweeted Henry T Perea’s tweet of the SacBee Article. It appears a safe conclusion that Mr. Bigelow was a yes vote and voted no in order to avoid a lynch mob in his own district.
Brian Dahle (AD01): When I spoke to Marc Steinorth (AD40), who was a yes vote, he indicated to me that Dahle was supportive of his decision. I later spoke to Dahle’s Chief of Staff who indicated Dahle was never a yes and was adamantly opposed.
Jay Obernolte (AD33): He was the Republican lead on negotiating with the democrats on the Cap and Trade Deal. He had told several colleagues that he was close to voting yes on the deal and then decided to go hard no after the governor reneged on several promises and deal points. The other yes votes should have done what Jay did, talk then bail after good faith was decimated.
Dante Acosta (AD38): His chief of staff was on facebook throwing written barbs at opponents of Cap and Trade. He was mocking and ridiculing them, this is an indicator that he likely advised Acosta to vote yes. Update: He contacted me to correct the record that he advised his boss to vote no, and that Mr. Acosta was always opposed.
Philip Chen (AD55): I spoke to him. He was never a yes and voted “Hell No” on the bill.
James Gallagher (AD03): He was never a yes vote, despite being close to Chad Mayes and a likely vote to re-affirm Mayes as minority leader.
Marie Waldron (AD75): Again, a hard right no vote, yet is a supporter of Chad Mayes to retain his leadership of the caucus.
I’ve heard various things about Tom Lackey (AD36) but have been told by a member of the legislature that he was furious that the bill was pushed over the line by Mr. Mayes and crew. That is a pretty emphatic statement that Mr. Lackey was opposed. Note – Lackey is considered vulnerable and targeted. Unlike Marc Steinorth and Jordan Cunningham (AD35), he did not roll over on this, undermining a defense of Mr. Cunningham and Steinorth. (They voted for this because they are in swing districts)
We will update as more information becomes available.
Aug 052017
 

By now, all of us that are interested in the California Republican Party know that Chad Mayes betrayed his wife, the California Republican Party and the Taxpayers of California.

In the last several days I have learned the following:

  1. Jim Brulte informed the CRP Board of directors that the Joint Fundraising Agreement that has existed since the enactment of Prop 34 was going to be terminated. Someone (Chad Mayes?) then directed Joe Justin, the consultant and brains behind the Cap and Trade deal to unwind the agreement. It is apparent that Mr. Mayes has had disdain for this fundraising agreement almost the entire time he has been leader. This “Power Move” appears to have been in response to…
  2. The CAGOP Board is meeting on 8/18 and is going to call on Chad Mayes to resign. The Joint Fundraising agreement accounts for about 80% of the CAGOP’s budget and is a powerful threat to keep people in line. In order for the threat to have teeth, Mayes will have to survive the leadership vote on 8/22, as a new leader (Obernolte) is going to keep it in place.
  3. CAGOP Chairman Jim Brulte is alleged to have thrown procedural roadblocks against an emergency CAGOP Board meeting, phone meeting, Skype meeting or on line meeting of the CAGOP board in order to delay them meeting to hammer Mayes. It takes 8 board members to call a meeting and 15 to make it happen. This means that it is as likely that it would have been a waste of time as there was significant doubt that a resolution would be occurring. So were there 8 people that would call the meeting? Or if this move was 100% Mr. Brulte, then combined with the threat to shut down 80% of the budget, it establishes a pattern of Mr. Brulte taking an overt and hostile action out in the open for the first time in his chairmanship.
  4. When the Mayes story first broke, the donors mentioned in previous posts and the employees of those donors were out defending Mr. Mayes. They are pretty silent publicly at this point.
  5. It has been put to me that should Chad Mayes get unseated as Permanent Minority Leader, that he will resign from the Assembly completely as his long term political ambition (CA-08 to replace the ailing Paul Cook) will have been effectively decimated.
  6. I was reminded that I had been told months ago that Jim Brulte was planning on resigning as CAGOP Chairman by Labor Day to pave the way for Kristen Olsen. I asked him several months ago when I heard the rumor if it was true, and Mr. Brulte told me he was finishing his current term. Was that rumor ultimately true after all?
  7. Kristen Olsen is NOT resigning as CAGOP Vice Chair. She is appearing to be playing the victim card and prefers the CAGOP Board to expel her rather than do the last honorable thing and resign. Worse, it is alleged that Ms. Olsen and Mr. Mayes have both moved on from each other to new relationships. Good God.
  8. CAGOP Chairman Jim Brulte appears to be caught in a mess of his own making, did he know that Kristen was having an affair with Mayes when he appointed her CAGOP Vice Chair? Did Mr. Brulte have clients of his consulting firm that benefited from Mayes’ Cap and Trade Deal? (I asked him and he indicated he knew of none) Is Mr. Brulte angling, like it appears Ms. Olsen is to try “suicide by cop” as in goading the CAGOP Board in to expelling him?
  9. Somewhere Joe Justin has to be asking himself what went wrong, as he grossly underestimated the blowback and the absolute outrage over the second largest tax increase in state history. (Justin is both a political consultant and Chad Mayes Chief of Staff)
  10. One of the heroes of this saga, Joseph Turner somehow received a copy of a confidential memo leaked from either the Assembly Rules Committee or the Assembly Ethics Committee. Someone had it out for Jim Brulte, Kirsten Olsen, Chad Mayes or all three. The memo was an ethics complaint written by Ms. Olsen’s soon to be ex-husband related to the affair between her and Mr. Mayes. Who sent Turner the Memo? Why? Remember, I had someone verbally leak to me the Rules Committee’s termination of Ted Gaines’ serial sexual harasser former staffer Steve Davey – so leaks from the rules committee are not unheard of.
  11. Jay Obernolte, an Assemblymember who represents the district formerly infested by Tim Donnelly is now running against Chad Mayes for leader.

I knew Jay Obernolte in High School. His life and mine took wildly different paths in the 30+ years since. Jay is a multi-millionaire and self-made. He is a man of ethics and integrity. He has been with the same woman since I knew him in High School 30+ years ago (it was 1985!).

Jay is not as conservative as I am, but he is extremely intelligent, thoughtful and deliberate. He will make good decisions and can always be reasoned with and pulled to the right if need be.

I trust Jay Obernolte and you should too. As to the rest of this mess, chalk it up as the latest disappointment in the life of a CAGOP Activist.