Aug 112017
 

Given that President Trump has had such virulent opposition, I have been remiss to disagree with him in public the few times when I have. Here’s one of them. Recently, I started looking in to what is happening with Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and the review of a ton of National Monuments designated in the last 20+ years.

Anyone who knows me, knows that my wife and I spend our vacation time traveling to National Parks and getting outdoors. I’m far from being a tree hugger, but as a hardcore conservative I also see the value in public land and preservation of these designations.

Currently under review by the Trump Administration, and I say this as a full-fledged Trump/MAGA supporter, are a list of lands designated by the previous Administration as parks or monuments under the Antiquities Act of 1906. My understanding of the purpose of the review by the Department of the Interior is to determine whether these designations should be rescinded by proclamations through executive order. In California for example, the areas under review include the Cascade Siskiyous, San Gabriel Mountains, Mojave Trails, Giant Sequoia, Carrizo Plain, Sand to Snow and others that aren’t just for hikers and bird watchers – but also used by hunters, campers and horsemen.

Apart from my understanding and appreciation for National Parks and monuments, as a conservative I have no problem with reviews of these land designations per se, but I would have an issue with any action being taken through executive order. While we conservatives crowed when Obama governed recklessly using the executive order, we can’t turn around and then say it’s ok if our guys do it; Congress must be included if this is a path that this Administration wants to explore. Truth be told, I get very nervous any time I hear “executive order” outside of clear national emergency or defense purposes.

I am far from the only one using my Ronald Reagan era cowboy boots to kick up a little dust on this, a number of other Constitutional conservatives have raised a red flag on the potential rescinding of monument status through executive order. Apart from the process however, let me be clear, I want  Secretary Zinke to keep all of these lands designated parks and monuments unchanged because it’s good for the taxpaying public.

Conservatives are the original and the true conservationists. Despite current events in California, we don’t hold these views because we are acquiescing to a left-wing agenda aimed at climate change. Rather, many of us understand that the preservation of our natural heritage is important for the future, and it also maintains both economic and recreational opportunities for families, outdoors people, hunters, off-roaders, campers and the thousands of jobs supported by these lands.

In a very selfish way I also support keeping parks and monuments because I also have seen and experienced some of the most beautiful country at our National Parks and monuments traveling with my wife on our yearly adventures – and to be brutally honest as I always am, I doubt those experiences would be open and available if they weren’t designated as such.

Aug 102017
 

I just got a political nuclear device delivered to my inbox.

The Placer GOP, by a vote of 37-0 (3 ABS) unanimously censured the 8 #CAPANDTRAITORS and called on Chad Mayes to resign.

There is significance to all of this. This is the first GOP Committee to light up ALL the #CAPANDTRAITORS. The previous 10 committees had focused on the philanderer only.

The fact that the vote was 37-0 means that Senator Jim Nielsen, in particular is on board with this as some of his staff are on the Central Committee. (BTW, one of the Abstentions was Frank Bigelow’s rep. Bigelow supported Cap and Trade but voted no on the floor)

Before I explain further the machinations – let’s look at the letter. It is incendiary.

This is the most strongly worded letter from any GOP Central Committee yet and will likely result in Media Calls to Placer GOP Chairman Dennis Revell, who is also a Public Relations executive by trade.

The part that resonated with me is the references to Ronald Reagan. Revell was a son-in-law to Ronald Reagan.

While this is not the censure resolution against the 8 Republicans that actually voted yes, that will follow and will be posted when I have received a copy of it.

Back to the machinations.

There are staff of Jim Nielsen and Doug LaMalfa on the Placer GOP Central Committee. Some or all of them had to vote yes. I was of the belief that an attempt by the Placer GOP would fail to reach 2/3. I held my tongue when I was alerted that David Stafford Reade had led the effort to blast Chad Mayes at the Yolo GOP Central Committee.

The connection is this: David Stafford Reade is Jim Nielsen’s Chief of Staff. Reade was also Doug LaMalfa’s Chief of Staff before he went to Congress. Reade has staff loyal to him deployed amongst several GOP Central Comittees all over the north state.

They include Saolo, the chair of Butte, staffers on Sutter, Sacramento, Glenn, Colusa, Tehama and of course Placer. All of those counties are in Jim Nielsen’s Senate District. I’ve written about the money that David Stafford Reade was involved in the deployment of all over the north state to influence the outcome of GOP Central Committee Elections in the North State (actually, 44 counties statewide)…

Yolo is David’s home county. David led the effort there. (Note: I had written that Reade made the motion, that is inaccurate, it was Rob Olsen that made the motion in Yolo)

Now, David’s top lieutenants were involved in yet another County Party lighting up Chad Mayes. I was told that one of Reade’s people spoke out against the resolution against the 7 others and suggested the committee stick with lighting up Mayes only. (implied is that Mayes is the real target)

I wrote before and I will write again that David Stafford Reade wants Joe Justin’s Job. It is a huge pay raise and would make Mr. Reade a kingmaker giving him real power to go with his paper castle in the North of California. Remember, Joe Justin is the chief of staff and strategist for Chad Mayes. While Justin and Reade have been aligned mostly in the past, it was a marriage of paycheck, donor appeasement and convenience. Now that Justin and Mayes are wounded, they are getting the Reade treatment.

I wish I could enjoy the Placer County Republican Party unloading on everyone – but I just can’t see it for what is in the surface. I feel the Earth moving and I have no one to root for.

I sincerely hope the new GOP leader, (and mark my words – Chad Mayes may survive on 8/22 at the Caucus vote… but he will not make it through 2017 as leader) cleans house. We need real conservatives without personal conflicts of interest (ahem, paychecks) clouding the advice they give their members.

Aug 092017
 

Today, I received a notification that Chad Mayes had Melissa Melendez stripped of her committee assignments and moved her to the Beth Gaines office. (Known as the Dog house – a tiny 300 square foot office in the corner of the 5th floor of the legislature building)

Gaines held this office for an extended period until various and sundry legislators earned the wrath of leadership. Now, Melissa Melendez is in the doghouse for heresy. Note that Vince Fong and Jay Obernolte have also challenged Chad Mayes, but it is Melendez who is getting singled out. Is it because Chad Mayes has issues with women he can’t sleep with? Or is this an out of control ego episode from someone experiencing the devastating loss of control similar to March of 1945?

That said, it has come to my attention that my post (on this blog that no one reads, but everyone seems to react to) about David Stafford Reade leading the Chad must resign charge in Yolo County the other night has drawn a reaction. Mr. Reade has been telling insiders that Mayes and his entire staff need to go. (Note: I had written that Reade made the motion, that is inaccurate, it was Rob Olsen that made the motion in Yolo)

Does this mean that David Stafford Reade wants Joe Justin’s Job? Were Reade to get some sort of Assembly Caucus senior staff job, he’d be a king-maker and get $160-$175K a year salary versus the roughly $110k he is making now.

David Stafford Reade, like Steve Frank, ran for Assembly in 1996. Reade got hammered for having 3 DUI’s and was defeated by Sam Aanestad. Similar to Steve Frank, it appears that Mr. Reade has never recovered from that campaign. As I have documented on this blog, Reade has had a pattern of years of abusive behavior and ethical issues. However, Reade is a top lieutenant of “Republican Leadership” and would have the connections and be familiar to the power brokers fearful of real change in leadership.

While I rail on Reade, he is an ideological Conservative. In that regard he’d be an improvement over the young inexperienced staff brought in after the Kristen Olsen purge.

And, to be clear, Reade is doing nothing wrong by earning tens of thousands of consulting fees from PAC’s and Republican Leadership. Reade needs to focus on trying to build the Republican Party, but prefers to try to get even with your intrepid blogger by threatening people directly or bullying people through proxies or attempting to meet out retribution on anyone else that he deems to have crossed him. When your political life is characterized by a string of people in multiple counties that you’ve bullied, threatened, tried to destroy and the like, your effectiveness as a leader is diminished.

Mr. Frank on the other hand, languishes in irrelevance after a failed attempt to monetize the Tea Party. Having suffered a recent heart attack, he has spent his recovery from his health issues trying to settle personal scores rather than trying to rally Conservatives to oust Chad Mayes.

It is people like Reade and Frank that make me despair that the CA GOP is salvageable.

CA GOP Chairman Jim Brulte on the other hand has a five star mess that he could extricate himself from quickly. I will go on the record as saying I have investigated his consulting firm and his role in it and it is my belief that he has no conflict of interest. I do believe that Mr. Brulte should be much more demonstrative in his treatment of Chad Mayes and Kristen Olsen with regard to helping remove them both from positions of influence, and by not doing so he is creating the appearance that he supports what they have done.

While the Chairman has told me emphatically that he is not calling on Jay Obernolte’s behalf, I spoke to a legislator today and a legislative staffer today that indicated he has. I will be having follow up conversations with them both where I will request a three way call with the Chairman so we can hash out what is happening. This is creating an appearance that Mr. Brulte is trying to control an outcome, which then leads to speculation and questions about motives.

The main injustice here is that it is even a debate about weather Chad Mayes will survive the leadership vote on 8/22. I’m being told that he just might, and the King Jong Un move of throwing Melissa Melendez in the Dog House bears that out. The number of fake no votes on Cap and Trade also suggest that the Jay Obernolte (or anyone else) leadership drill may not succeed.

If Chad Mayes’ lack of personal integrity and his ego are so completely unbalanced that he stays in office, let alone leadership, after 8/22 he should be moved to the Dog House.

Aug 092017
 

I’ve heard it for years. Munger. Blame everything on Charles Munger.

Charles Munger has help. CREPAC – the Realtors. Dental PAC. Chevron. PG&E. The California Chamber of Commerce (aka Chamber PAC) also JOBSPAC. If you look at the reports, you will see this crew behind every effort to take over partisan offices and central committees. Heck, if you look really close, you will see Sierra Pacific Industries, Eli Lilly and a host of other household names in there as well.

If you look even closer – you will see that Charles Munger is no longer bankrolling the California Republican Party and further research shows that his voter registration efforts have abated. If those statements were not clear, take a look at the CAGOP Treasurer Report at the next convention, you will see much smaller checks from Mr. Munger to the CRP. Ask any of the major vendors that do voter registration, they will tell you their efforts are no longer funded by Mr. Munger. It appears that he is focused on buying mail and TV ads for campaign independent expenditures only now, and who knows if that continues with the irrelevance of the GOP in California.

The lesson here is know your enemy. Know who they are and what they are doing. You can learn a lot from searching the California Secretary of State’s Website.

Lesson Number 2? Know why Donors do what they do. For most it is a business decision and is not steeped in ideology. They need people they can work with. It sounds slimy, but it is the world we live in.

If you’re a conservative activist in California, you know that your candidate for Assembly, State Senate or Congress is not going to be in favor. This means from the beginning of the campaign, the volunteers and activists have to organize and work smart.

  1. Stay off social media with conspiracy theories while you are campaigning actively for a candidate. Chemtrails, Flouride, Illuminati stories are a few such items I see, it does not matter if you believe this stuff is true, most think it is crazy. Accept it and drive on. Persist and you will make your candidate look bad.
  2. Sign-Waiving is useless. If you are on overpasses or street corners, you are wasting your time. I have seen this time and time again amongst tea party and conservative groups.
  3. Walk Precincts, knock on doors and talk to people. This is what people / volunteers hate doing. This is the single most effective thing you can do for a candidate. Even the most poorly funded candidate can afford voter lists from the county that can be used to make precinct lists.
  4. Make Phone Calls if you are not physically able to walk neighborhoods.
  5. Let the candidate and their staff do all the public events. You simply can not meet enough people by going to rotary clubs, republican clubs, etc to win an election. The candidate and their staff can find new volunteers at these events you can work with, but you should be on the phone and at the front door.
  6. Give your candidate money. Ask others to give them money. The more donors a candidate has, the more likely “The Swamp” does not go after them. There is strength in numbers.

Too many times, when the mass money from “The Swamp” comes, it overwhelms the Conservative Target because there has been precious little contact in the neighborhood. When the Mail and Ads come down and the target of them is standing on the street corner with signs, it actually makes the attacks more effective because raising the visability of the subject of smears causes people to ask the wrong questions.

IF you’ve actually been out there doing the work and telling individual people the story, then the attacks do not work.

Once “The Swamp” starts dropping the money bomb then what?

  1. Get ahold of everyone you know on a personal level, tell them that “CREPAC, the Spirit of Democracy or whatever” is spending huge to elect a tax-raiser (or whatever the issue is). Are you going to let them win? Can you help us reach people?
  2. Then late at night or early in the morning when you can’t call people or walk precincts, use social media and email to forward your guy’s stuff. It takes 7-10 repetitions, so once a day on social media and once every other day via email is the right interval. Again, if you are doing this without also walking precincts or making phone calls – it is a waste
  3. Give your candidate money. Ask others to give them money.

Money – Conservatives are the worst donors in the world. This is why Conservative candidates are sitting ducks a lot of the time for “The Swamp” to take out. Stop calling yourselves “Fiscal Conservatives” as an excuse for not donating to causes. If you support something, yet are unwilling to even give $20 to it, you really don’t support it. Remember “Faith without works is dead”.

I have a really hard time feeling bad for groups of people that complain about a Heath Flora or a Rocky Chavez in a safe district who are “Moderates” that go up on Cap and Trade when they never knocked on a door, made a call or gave a dime – yet there they are on Facebook fighting the good fight.

Drop the campaign sign, get off of Facebook, stick a crowbar in your checkbook and then let’s complain about election results.

Next up – I am going to tie posts 1-5 together so that there is a clear sense of what it takes and what you can do to burn down the California Republican Party and take our party back from the donors, squishes, unprincipled, elitists and (fill in the type of heresy here).

You can’t win unless you take ownership of your part. You can’t win unless you are willing to do the work. To be continued.

Aug 082017
 

I want to repeat a couple things:

I know Jay Obernolte to be an ethical, honest man of integrity. I trust his judgement, but some things have been happening around him that give me pause. This is a report of insider machinations that needs to be made so that the rest of us understand what is happening.

On Tue of last week, I spoke to Mr. Obernolte on condition of confidentiality. He indicated that a few people had approached him about running for leader. I said nothing until He had started making calls and it got out.

Jay is extremely intelligent, successful in life and has an excellent work ethic. In short, he has the skill set to do the job.

All of the positive attributes I lavish on Jay Obernolte also apply to Melissa Melendez – the key difference between the two is that Melissa is a full-portfolio Conservative. Jay is not. Melissa is rumored to be looking at running for leader. If Melissa ran against Jay Obernolte and I had a vote – it would be extremely difficult to choose as it would pit a long-term high school friend I respect against a Conservative hero.

The Republican Caucus in the legislature is 25 members. You need 13 in order to get elected leader. At one point Vince Fong of Bakersfield had 10-11 lined up. It is alleged that Mr. Obernolte has 15 as of today, I believe the number is in the 10-13 range with a lot in flux. What I hope is that Vince Fong and Melissa Melendez are tapped by Jay for key roles in the team and they avoid a meltdown in the 8/22 Caucus meeting.

Events are leading me to believe that the “Leadership / Donor community” is rolling off of Chad Mayes and on to Jay Obernolte for leader. Either Jay locked up the votes and forced them to join in or there is an anointing going on. This will make it extremely difficult for Melissa Melendez or anyone else to get to 13, and this may also be part of the nexus for some of a few key pieces of evidence:

  1. CA GOP Chairman Jim Brulte, who has been lambasted for appearing to be defending Chad Mayes in recent weeks has now started making calls on Obernolte’s behalf. Was Brulte one of those that had talked to Mr. Obernolte about replacing Chad Mayes? (Update: Mr. Brulte indicated that while he did call legislators, he did not discuss Jay Obernolte or the leadership fight specifically)
  2. Mr. Brulte and Mr. Obernolte are indeed close, Brulte has flown several times on Mr. Obernolte’s jet to events or vacations.
  3. It is alleged that Chad Mayes will be “passing the baton” to Jay Obernolte – by stepping aside and asking his leadership team that have not committed to Jay to commit to him. (This may have already happened, contributing to the estimated vote count of 15)
  4. David Stafford Reade, a key lieutenant in the leadership team was the maker of the motion on the Yolo GOP last night (8/7/2017) to endorse the removal of Chad Mayes as leader. This suggests that the donor community has also pivoted with Mr. Brulte away from Mayes and onto Obernolte.
  5. It is alleged that Jay is making deals with individual members for their participation and support. This is smart politics.

I have ripped on Chevron incessantly for their lavish spending on liberal Republicans as a part of the small crew of large donors. They and other Oil Companies popped up with large amounts of money donated during the run up to the cap and trade disaster.

Three other Assembly lawmakers who are not typically swing votes also received more than $10,000 from oil interests. They are Democrat Blanca Rubio, who backed the deal, and Republicans Jay Obernolte and Vince Fong, who opposed it.

While the money concerns me, it is standard fair for industry to lobby and spread cash out during major bills. Seeing arch-conservative Fong and Mr. Obernolte bring in similar amounts of Oil Money concerns me less. I was indeed told by an oil man that the oil industry dodged a major bullet with the Cap and Trade bill – don’t worry, there is always next year for the democrats.

I have several questions for an Obernolte leadership tenure:

Since Jay has been with his wife since I first met him in 1985 (she was his girlfriend then), I know that the recent string of Republican leaders who have used the CA GOP as a dating service or their position of government power as a mating/dating service will end with Jay as he is a faithful man. Will Mr. Obernolte enforce some sort of personal discipline standard on his team?

Joe Justin is one of the best campaign consultants I have ever met. Working with him on the Bill Halldin Campaign was one of the best experiences of my career as an operative. I’d recommend him to anyone who wants to win election.

However, I have been fiercely critical of his part in the drill for the cap and trade deal, his potential conflicts of interest and his very liberal ideology for a Republican. There is another man by the last name of Zimmerman that appears to have a similar pedigree within the capitol staff (he is not a campaign guy in addition like Joe is). Zimmerman was brought in after disgraced former permanent minority leader Kristen Olsen purged all of the old-school conservatives and brought in new, inexperienced younger caucus staff.

Will Jay Obernolte bring in new staff that are Conservative Republicans who are dedicated to their jobs (aka free of potential conflicts) who will give good solid advice to the Assembly Republicans, or will the Kristen Olsen staffers continue?

Will Jay Obernolte allow the “One-Ask-Program” to be dismantled as Chad Mayes had threatened to do on his way out the door? Will Mr. Obernolte keep it in place, thus securing 80% of the CA GOP’s budget for several years to come? (This, by the way is why “leadership” has so much influence in the CA GOP) Will Obernolte figure out another arrangement to keep the CA GOP solvent?

What will Jay Obernolte’s role in CAGOP leadership be? Who does he support to replace Kristen Olsen, Jim Brulte? What does he do to rally the demoralized and enraged grassroots?

I am going to finish this update by saying that I trust Jay Obernolte as a man. I am concerned that some around him could manipulate him in to a similarly destructive course as happened to Chad Mayes.

He has the skill set and the potential to be extremely effective for the California Republican Party and I am cheering for him to succeed.

Aug 062017
 

As the lynch mobs have been burning the countryside in search of #CAPANDTRAITORS, your intrepid blogger is weighing in to provide some information:

My own Assemblymember, Kevin Kiley (AD06) said the following in an email:

Hi Aaron,
Thanks for the message. I was a firm no, and everyone was well aware of that. I’ve spoken against it strongly in all of my public remarks in recent weeks, such as yesterday’s Rocklin Chamber GRC breakfast and last week’s town hall.
Kevin
I replied thanking him for responding so quickly and the email addresses I had for him and his Chief of Staff now appear disabled. I think that means he shut down the gmail accounts he was using for his campaign. Hopefully, I will still be able to reach him for comment in the future. As of the writing of this post, Kevin Kiley has yet to make a vote I disagree with. At the time of the writing of this post, I am leaning heavily toward early-endorsing Mr. Kiley.
Frank Bigelow (AD05): See the embedded screenshot of him liking a tweet by democrat Phil Ting extolling the virtues of the Cap and Trade agreement. He also retweeted Henry T Perea’s tweet of the SacBee Article. It appears a safe conclusion that Mr. Bigelow was a yes vote and voted no in order to avoid a lynch mob in his own district.
Brian Dahle (AD01): When I spoke to Marc Steinorth (AD40), who was a yes vote, he indicated to me that Dahle was supportive of his decision. I later spoke to Dahle’s Chief of Staff who indicated Dahle was never a yes and was adamantly opposed.
Jay Obernolte (AD33): He was the Republican lead on negotiating with the democrats on the Cap and Trade Deal. He had told several colleagues that he was close to voting yes on the deal and then decided to go hard no after the governor reneged on several promises and deal points. The other yes votes should have done what Jay did, talk then bail after good faith was decimated.
Dante Acosta (AD38): His chief of staff was on facebook throwing written barbs at opponents of Cap and Trade. He was mocking and ridiculing them, this is an indicator that he likely advised Acosta to vote yes. Update: He contacted me to correct the record that he advised his boss to vote no, and that Mr. Acosta was always opposed.
Philip Chen (AD55): I spoke to him. He was never a yes and voted “Hell No” on the bill.
James Gallagher (AD03): He was never a yes vote, despite being close to Chad Mayes and a likely vote to re-affirm Mayes as minority leader.
Marie Waldron (AD75): Again, a hard right no vote, yet is a supporter of Chad Mayes to retain his leadership of the caucus.
I’ve heard various things about Tom Lackey (AD36) but have been told by a member of the legislature that he was furious that the bill was pushed over the line by Mr. Mayes and crew. That is a pretty emphatic statement that Mr. Lackey was opposed. Note – Lackey is considered vulnerable and targeted. Unlike Marc Steinorth and Jordan Cunningham (AD35), he did not roll over on this, undermining a defense of Mr. Cunningham and Steinorth. (They voted for this because they are in swing districts)
We will update as more information becomes available.
Aug 052017
 

By now, all of us that are interested in the California Republican Party know that Chad Mayes betrayed his wife, the California Republican Party and the Taxpayers of California.

In the last several days I have learned the following:

  1. Jim Brulte informed the CRP Board of directors that the Joint Fundraising Agreement that has existed since the enactment of Prop 34 was going to be terminated. Someone (Chad Mayes?) then directed Joe Justin, the consultant and brains behind the Cap and Trade deal to unwind the agreement. It is apparent that Mr. Mayes has had disdain for this fundraising agreement almost the entire time he has been leader. This “Power Move” appears to have been in response to…
  2. The CAGOP Board is meeting on 8/18 and is going to call on Chad Mayes to resign. The Joint Fundraising agreement accounts for about 80% of the CAGOP’s budget and is a powerful threat to keep people in line. In order for the threat to have teeth, Mayes will have to survive the leadership vote on 8/22, as a new leader (Obernolte) is going to keep it in place.
  3. CAGOP Chairman Jim Brulte is alleged to have thrown procedural roadblocks against an emergency CAGOP Board meeting, phone meeting, Skype meeting or on line meeting of the CAGOP board in order to delay them meeting to hammer Mayes. It takes 8 board members to call a meeting and 15 to make it happen. This means that it is as likely that it would have been a waste of time as there was significant doubt that a resolution would be occurring. So were there 8 people that would call the meeting? Or if this move was 100% Mr. Brulte, then combined with the threat to shut down 80% of the budget, it establishes a pattern of Mr. Brulte taking an overt and hostile action out in the open for the first time in his chairmanship.
  4. When the Mayes story first broke, the donors mentioned in previous posts and the employees of those donors were out defending Mr. Mayes. They are pretty silent publicly at this point.
  5. It has been put to me that should Chad Mayes get unseated as Permanent Minority Leader, that he will resign from the Assembly completely as his long term political ambition (CA-08 to replace the ailing Paul Cook) will have been effectively decimated.
  6. I was reminded that I had been told months ago that Jim Brulte was planning on resigning as CAGOP Chairman by Labor Day to pave the way for Kristen Olsen. I asked him several months ago when I heard the rumor if it was true, and Mr. Brulte told me he was finishing his current term. Was that rumor ultimately true after all?
  7. Kristen Olsen is NOT resigning as CAGOP Vice Chair. She is appearing to be playing the victim card and prefers the CAGOP Board to expel her rather than do the last honorable thing and resign. Worse, it is alleged that Ms. Olsen and Mr. Mayes have both moved on from each other to new relationships. Good God.
  8. CAGOP Chairman Jim Brulte appears to be caught in a mess of his own making, did he know that Kristen was having an affair with Mayes when he appointed her CAGOP Vice Chair? Did Mr. Brulte have clients of his consulting firm that benefited from Mayes’ Cap and Trade Deal? (I asked him and he indicated he knew of none) Is Mr. Brulte angling, like it appears Ms. Olsen is to try “suicide by cop” as in goading the CAGOP Board in to expelling him?
  9. Somewhere Joe Justin has to be asking himself what went wrong, as he grossly underestimated the blowback and the absolute outrage over the second largest tax increase in state history. (Justin is both a political consultant and Chad Mayes Chief of Staff)
  10. One of the heroes of this saga, Joseph Turner somehow received a copy of a confidential memo leaked from either the Assembly Rules Committee or the Assembly Ethics Committee. Someone had it out for Jim Brulte, Kirsten Olsen, Chad Mayes or all three. The memo was an ethics complaint written by Ms. Olsen’s soon to be ex-husband related to the affair between her and Mr. Mayes. Who sent Turner the Memo? Why? Remember, I had someone verbally leak to me the Rules Committee’s termination of Ted Gaines’ serial sexual harasser former staffer Steve Davey – so leaks from the rules committee are not unheard of.
  11. Jay Obernolte, an Assemblymember who represents the district formerly infested by Tim Donnelly is now running against Chad Mayes for leader.

I knew Jay Obernolte in High School. His life and mine took wildly different paths in the 30+ years since. Jay is a multi-millionaire and self-made. He is a man of ethics and integrity. He has been with the same woman since I knew him in High School 30+ years ago (it was 1985!).

Jay is not as conservative as I am, but he is extremely intelligent, thoughtful and deliberate. He will make good decisions and can always be reasoned with and pulled to the right if need be.

I trust Jay Obernolte and you should too. As to the rest of this mess, chalk it up as the latest disappointment in the life of a CAGOP Activist.

Aug 022017
 

Within the California Republican Party are a series of volunteer clubs. I will list most of them with a brief description and then conclude with ideas about how they can play a role in preventing the “Third House” and Republican Leadership from having free reign to run amok.

AS I wrote about County Central Committees being basically useless without real people doing real things to raise money, recruit candidates and promote the endorsements, this is also true of a volunteer club. Several clubs are basically shells with only a few members left that accomplish little. That said, some of those groups represent real opportunities for perceived influence.

My personal feelings about organizations aside, here is as close to an impartial analysis as I can offer:

The California Impact Republicans (Note: I am a state board member) are a conservative grassroots group centered around winning elections, recruiting candidates, electing candidates, raising money and promoting Conservative Republican Values co-equally.

The California Republican Assembly (CRA) is a far-right group that is centered around debating and endorsing candidates.

The California Congress of Republicans is a center-right grassroots group with a handful of chapters statewide. They endorse.

The College Republicans are an age-based GOP group across the ideological spectrum. They are known for turning out volunteers for “target races” around the state.

The California Young Republican Federation is also an age-based GOP group of people from College to age 41. They endorse and also turn out volunteers for elections.

The Republican Women Federated is a gender-based group of people of all ages. They do not endorse. They are a volunteer club.

The Log Cabin Republicans. They are a the LGBT republicans.

There are smaller groups centered around ethnicity or the Republican Lawyers – but most all exist on paper only.

Similar to taking over a Republican Central Committee, organizing a grassroots club can be a tool to create a movement of its’ own. There are a limited number of seats on a County Central Committee, but an unlimited number of memberships to a grassroots group.

You can see why “The Swamp” like to manipulate and play in the outcomes of the College and Young Republican’s elections and why in the past they played in the CRA elections. Similar to manipulating and controlling county parties, clubs present perceived power.

In the past, I’ve been a chapter president of a local club that organized to take over the Placer GOP Central Committee, elected 6 of its’ members to local office and registered hundreds of voters. Volunteer Groups can be far more effective than a county Central Committee could ever dream of being… especially when that group has a PAC committee to use for elections.

How do you participate in a successful volunteer club? You have to have something to sell…

  1. A good club has events that draw people in
  2. A good club has a clear vision of what it is trying to accomplish
  3. A good club is active, making phone calls, walking precincts, hosting events and recruiting candidates
  4. A good club communicates with its’ members frequently
  5. Note: I did not mention social media. Facebook is useless as a tool for beating the Third House or the Swamp

How do these volunteer groups relate to burning down the California Republican Party?

A volunteer group with 30-50 members can create terror in the heart of a rogue Republican Elected. 30-50 people talking, walking precincts, making phone calls, contributing to their opponent, and hosting events is an army. 30-50 people whining on Facebook is background noise.

If the group has stable, ethical leadership with their egos in check, there is literally nothing that can stop them from having a devastating impact on an election. If fights to the death for ideological purity or being right carry the day, then the swamp wins.

The swamp also counts on good Conservatives having too many excuses to organize an effective movement. If you care about burning down the GOP to take it away from the money people, special interests, consultants and unprincipled electeds then it requires a sacrifice of personal time to do so.

Volunteer groups are an effective and almost immediate way to cause the earth to shift politically.

In Part 4, I will detail how Central Committees and Volunteer Groups play a role in the California Republican Party, the next target in the “Burn it Down Series”

Aug 022017
 

I took a press release from the John Cox for Governor Campaign (BTW – The Impact Republicans Endorsed John Cox) and cut and pasted pieces of it to tell the story:

California — A poll conducted last week along with fundraising reports show Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox in second place.

A poll commissioned by the Cox campaign and conducted by SmithJohnson Research shows Gavin Newsom at 25.2 percent, Cox at 14.1 percent, Antonio Villaraigosa at 12.4 percent, Travis Allen at 9.6 percent, John Chiang at 7.4 percent, Delaine Eastin at 3.2 percent, and 28 percent remaining undecided.

“John Cox has consistently shown the ability to earn a significant percentage of support in every public and private survey released to date,” said Cox senior strategist Wayne Johnson. “These latest results show that even with a second tier GOP spoiler running under 10 percent, Cox is in a strong position to make the top two.”

Cox has raised over $204,000 from over 1,500 individual donors in the second quarter of 2017, in addition to his own $3 million contribution.

In the first six months of 2017 Newsom has raised $5,329,682, Cox has raised $3,205,122, Chiang has raised $2,560,963, Villaraigosa has raised $2,291,747, Eastin has raised $313,037, and Travis Allen has raised $78,403.

“I’m irrevocably committed to this race,” Cox said. “Nineteen states have recently elected Republican business people to governorships, including traditionally Democratic states such as Maryland and Massachusetts – I believe we can do that here. I’m in it to win, and that has been resonating with people throughout California.”

“Californians are tired of the status quo in Sacramento and want honest change,” Cox said. “I’m the only candidate in the race for governor that isn’t a politician and who actually has a real plan to break the special interest money hold on our state capitol and return power to the people.”

The poll listed each candidate along with their likely ballot description and party affiliation. The poll was done through live telephone interviews with 500 likely 2018 primary voters from July 27 through 30. The sampling error is +/- 4.4 percent.

John Cox is a husband, father, businessman and Republican candidate for California Governor in 2018. Born and raised on the south-side of Chicago by a single mother public school teacher, John is a CPA who built his small business from the ground up. He is a longtime government reform advocate and conservative, and is running to eliminate the corrupting influence of special interest money that has made California the highest taxed and regulated state in the nation.

Why is Travis Allen running for Governor? $77K in the bank? This is a worse showing than Tim Donnelly…

The SF Chronicle shows the humiliating position for Mr. Allen. Allen told me to my face that he is done in the Assembly. That’s great, but there are 4 Statewide Races without a Republican in them. Go run for one of those instead of helping the democrats get a D vs D runoff.

Aug 012017
 

Those of you that read this blog know I have been fiercely critical of the OCGOP and their fealty to incumbents. It appears that may be changing. All that said, Fred Whitaker deserves credit and the OCGOP itself deserve credit for doing the right thing here.

As outlined on Joseph Turner’s BlogFred Whitaker signed a letter calling on Chad Mayes to resign over his failed leadership selling out the taxpayers of California with the “Cap and Trade” deal.

I try to give recognition to people that show leadership despite past criticism. Mr. Whitaker and the OCGOP deserve some respect for doing what they did.

Bonus: Another group I have torched, the OC Lincoln Club (speaking of incumbent fealty) also lit Chad Mayes up.

Thank You Fred Whitaker
Thank You OCGOP
Thank You OC Lincoln Club

Side note: Not one member of the Orange County Republican Delegation voted in favor of Cap and Trade. It was rumored that one member was a potential yes vote due to his perceived affinithy for Mr. Mayes.